Florida's Real Estate Exodus: Why More Homeowners Are Leaving the Sunshine State

by Adam Miller

Florida's Real Estate Exodus: Why More Homeowners Are Leaving the Sunshine State

If you've even glanced at the news lately, you've probably seen the headlines: Florida’s real estate market is in trouble. While this may come as a surprise to some, real estate professionals and Florida residents have been sounding the alarm for months. And now, new data is confirming what many of us already know—homeowners are leaving Florida, and the reasons behind the exodus are piling up.

As a real estate agent and lifestyle matchmaker based in Lakewood Ranch, Florida, I’ve had countless conversations with buyers, sellers, and fellow agents. And while Lakewood Ranch remains a unique bright spot in the market, the broader picture across Florida paints a very different story.

Why Are People Leaving Florida in 2025?

A recent study outlines four major factors driving this shift—and the data is hard to ignore. Let’s break it down.

1. Soaring Home Prices and Affordability Challenges

Florida’s median home price hit $393,000 as of late 2024, pushing it well above the national average. Urban areas like Miami and Tampa are seeing even steeper increases, with Miami’s median listing price topping $630,000. This surge in pricing has made it increasingly difficult for first-time buyers and working families to afford a home in Florida.

In Lakewood Ranch, we’ve seen homes that sold for $400,000 in 2018 now selling for well over $800,000—a 100% price increase in just five years. While this has been a boon for sellers, it’s pricing many potential buyers out of the market.

2. Soaring Homeowners Insurance and Hurricane Risk

Perhaps the biggest reason for Florida's outbound migration is the skyrocketing cost of home insurance, especially in high-risk hurricane zones.

Insurance premiums that once averaged $3,000 annually are now approaching $15,000 to $17,000 for many homeowners. Some are choosing to go uninsured entirely, a gamble that proved devastating during Florida’s back-to-back hurricane seasons in recent years. The storm surge and flood damage across areas like Fort Myers, Anna Maria Island, and Siesta Key has been extensive and expensive.

3. Slowing Job Growth and Economic Diversification Issues

Florida has long marketed itself as a low-tax haven with abundant job opportunities. But in reality, the lack of economic diversification is becoming a problem, particularly for young professionals.

Unlike states like Texas or North Carolina, Florida lacks a strong tech sector and offers limited upward mobility for workers in modern industries. This is a failure of long-term planning, and it’s prompting many millennials and Gen Z residents to leave for places like Georgia, Tennessee, and the Carolinas, where the cost of living is lower and job opportunities are broader.

4. Infrastructure Strain and Traffic Congestion

As Florida’s population surged over the past decade, the state struggled to maintain its infrastructure. Roads, schools, water systems, and public transportation systems have not kept pace with the demand.

Here in Lakewood Ranch, we’re seeing major investments in infrastructure, including a new high school and the widening of State Road 70. But even with those improvements, traffic congestion in Sarasota and Manatee Counties is worsening, not just during snowbird season, but year-round.

Lakewood Ranch: An Outlier in a Troubled Market

Despite these statewide challenges, Lakewood Ranch, Florida, continues to outperform much of the state. It remains the #1 best-selling master-planned community in the U.S., with over 45 active neighborhoods and a strong pipeline of new construction.

Unlike the broader Florida market, where building permits fell nearly 10% in 2022, new home construction in Lakewood Ranch is still going strong. Builders are even beginning to offer price reductions, closing cost incentives, and rate buydowns—options that didn’t exist even a year ago.

Still, even in Lakewood Ranch, we’re seeing telltale signs of a shifting market:

Over 1,500 price reductions in the Sarasota-Manatee MLS in the last week alone
Over 150 expired listings
Nearly 500 homes were withdrawn or canceled from the market
Inventory is rising faster than pending sales or closings

The Bottom Line: A Market in Transition

This is the first year in decades where Florida’s net migration has dropped below 100,000, now sitting around 64,000 new residents -a sharp decline from recent years where that number exceeded 300,000.

If this trend continues—and if the Florida insurance crisis, infrastructure bottlenecks, and affordability issues aren’t resolved—what we’re seeing now could shift from a market correction into a long-term real estate contraction.

Lakewood Ranch Relocation Guide

Final Thoughts and What to Watch For

Florida is still one of the most desirable states in the country for retirees, lifestyle seekers, and business-friendly entrepreneurs. But the cost of living, natural disaster risks, and market volatility are giving buyers and sellers pause.

If you're a homeowner in Florida or you're thinking about buying or selling in Lakewood Ranch, it’s more important than ever to work with an agent who understands how to navigate a changing market, not just someone who tells you what you want to hear.

Need help understanding your options? Want a hyper-local perspective? Let’s connect.

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