Is the Florida Housing Market on the Edge? The Hidden Warning Signs in Lakewood Ranch

by Adam Miller

Let’s not sugarcoat it.
119,000 brand new homes are sitting unsold in the U.S. right now.
You read that right. These are finished, move-in-ready homes sitting vacant. That’s the highest level of unsold new construction inventory since the 2009 housing market crash.

And this isn’t a theory. This isn’t “clickbait.” This is hard data, and it’s painting a pretty grim picture. Especially here in Florida.

Homebuyers Are Hesitating. Builders Are Bleeding.

According to ResiClub Analytics, the number of unsold, completed new homes skyrocketed from 32,000 in March 2022 to 119,000 by March 2025. That’s nearly a 4X increase in just two years. And the hardest-hit markets? Florida and Texas, particularly Gulf Coast communities like Lakewood Ranch.

Builders are trying everything to get homes off their books. Lennar is spending 13% of the home’s price on incentives — that’s over $52,000 on a $400,000 home. KB Home is slashing prices across multiple states just to “stop the bleeding.” And D.R. Horton, one of the biggest builders here in Lakewood Ranch, openly admitted that their spring sales have slowed much more than expected.

These aren’t headlines — these are quotes directly from their earnings calls.

The Florida Housing Market Correction Has Already Started

Let’s be clear: this is not a pricing issue anymore. It’s a confidence issue.

Interest rates remain near 7%. Buyers are nervous, skeptical, and hesitant. The sense of urgency that once defined this market? Gone.

And yet, sellers — especially in Lakewood Ranch — are still pricing homes like it’s 2021.

Let me give you a real look at what we’re seeing right now:

Nearly half of the neighborhoods in Lakewood Ranch are still under construction.
But dozens and dozens of fully completed, move-in-ready homes are sitting empty.
Builder reps are following up harder than ever — not out of enthusiasm, but out of desperation.
Incentives that used to be rare? Now they’re the norm.
Completed homes are sitting longer, and buyer leverage is back.

The story of endless demand in Lakewood Ranch is cracking — and fast.

Local Data: What the Lakewood Ranch Housing Market Looks Like Right Now

We pulled the most recent MLS data for Lakewood Ranch and the greater Sarasota-Manatee area. In just 7 days:

975 new listings hit the market
Only 651 went pending
A staggering 1,785 homes had price reductions
239 homes came back on the market
391 listings expired — they failed to sell
355 cancelled their listings
85 were withdrawn altogether

That’s over 800 homes that failed to sell in one week.

This is supposed to be the busy season.

Competing with Builders? It’s a Losing Game for Many Sellers

If you’re a resale homeowner, your competition isn’t just your neighbor anymore. It’s the builder down the street offering:

$40,000 in rate buy-downs
Paid closing costs
10-year warranties
Free upgrades (we’ve even seen free pools)

As a homeowner, you can’t compete with that at scale. Not unless you drastically reduce your price — and even then, you're chasing a moving target.

Buyers: Be Careful What You Walk Into

You might think now’s the time to buy. More homes, better deals, huge incentives. But here’s the risk — and we’re seeing it already in Lakewood Ranch:

Buyers are closing on new homes, only to see the same model drop $25,000 just 60 days later.

You get the keys, and you're already in the red.

This Is the Pattern We Saw in 2008

More inventory. Bigger incentives. Buyer hesitation. Slower sales.
Then, the price drops.
And no, it doesn’t collapse overnight. It creeps in. Slowly. Quietly. Until it’s too late to adjust.

We’re not predicting doom. We’re tracking the data, and the data is clear.

Lakewood Ranch: Still Desirable, But No Longer Untouchable

We love this community. We live here. We work here. Lakewood Ranch is still one of the top master-planned communities in the U.S. But what’s changed is the housing market underneath it.

And while the marketing brochures still paint a perfect picture, reality is telling a different story.

That’s where our team comes in.

Jessica and I aren’t here to scare you, but we’re definitely not going to pretend like everything is fine either. We walk the neighborhoods. We track the incentives. We see the trends before they hit the headlines.

Whether you’re buying, selling, or just trying to figure out what's going on, you need real data, not realtors who smile and nod.